The abstract concept of “information” can be quantified and this
has led to many important advances in the analysis of data in the
empirical sciences. This text focuses on a science philosophy based on
“multiple working hypotheses” and statistical models to represent
them. The fundamental science question relates to the empirical
evidence for hypotheses in this set—a formal strength of evidence.
Kullback-Leibler information is the information lost when a model is
used to approximate full reality. Hirotugu Akaike found a link between
K-L information (a cornerstone of information theory) and the
maximized log-likelihood (a cornerstone of mathematical statistics).
This combination has become the basis for a new paradigm in model
based inference. The text advocates formal inference from all the
hypotheses/models in the a priori set—multimodel inference. This
compelling approach allows a simple ranking of the science hypothesis
and their models. Simple methods are introduced for computing the
likelihood of model i, given the data; the probability of model i,
given the data; and evidence ratios. These quantities represent a
formal strength of evidence and are easy to compute and understand,
given the estimated model parameters and associated quantities (e.g.,
residual sum of squares, maximized log-likelihood, and covariance
matrices). Additional forms of multimodel inference include model
averaging, unconditional variances, and ways to rank the relative
importance of predictor variables. This textbook is written for people
new to the information-theoretic approaches to statistical inference,
whether graduate students, post-docs, or professionals in various
universities, agencies or institutes. Readers are expected to have a
background in general statistical principles, regression analysis, and
some exposure to likelihood methods. This is not an elementary text as
it assumes reasonable competence in modeling and parameterestimation.
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A Primer on Evidence
Produktdetaljer
ISBN
9780387740751
Publisert
2020
Utgiver
Vendor
Springer
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Digital bok
Forfatter