<i>‘</i>From Uncertainty to Policy <i>expertly tackles the challenge of forecasting migration in an unpredictable world. This volume equips scholars and policymakers with robust, realistic methods to navigate inherent uncertainties while taking a pragmatic approach to scenario building. An indispensable resource for crafting informed views onto possible migration futures.’</i>

- Steven Vertovec, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity, Germany,

<i>‘Migration is not easy to predict but this excellent book covers all the issues that researchers and practitioners need to know to do the difficult job. Central to the message is the embracement of uncertainty about things we both understand and do not understand.’</i>

- James Raymer, The Australian National University, Australia,

This unique book provides a practical and interdisciplinary blueprint for determining quantitative scenarios of future international migration. Focusing on complexity and uncertainty as the defining challenges of migration, it explores how scenario building can be used to inform and underpin effective migration policy and practice.Through conceptual, theoretical and methodological analysis, From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios outlines the current state of the art in future-oriented migration studies. Highlighting key lessons and recommendations, expert contributors assess both the opportunities and limitations of scenario building as an analytical device. They combine demographic, statistical, sociological, economic, geographic and political science expertise to develop a new multi-step process for estimating, predicting and simulating migration flows and patterns. Ultimately, the book emphasises the importance of accounting for uncertainty and complexity in migration policy and presents practical tools for accurately measuring and managing migration now and in the future.Advancing the methodology of setting migration scenarios under uncertainty, this book is an essential resource for migration practitioners, advisors and policy-makers and a valuable read for students and scholars of migration studies, geography and population sciences.
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Contents Foreword by Adrian E. Raftery xi Acknowledgements xvi PART I FOUNDATIONS 1 Introduction: migration uncertainty, policy and scenarios 2 Jakub Bijak 2 Collecting evidence: ingredients of scenario-building 10 Jakub Bijak and Mathias Czaika PART II DEALING WITH EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY: CONCEPTS, DRIVERS AND DATA 3 Sources of uncertainty in migration scenarios 23 Mathias Czaika, Heidrun Bohnet, Federica Zardo and Jakub Bijak 4 Migration drivers across time and space: selected examples 38 Marta Bivand Erdal, Helga de Valk, Jackline Wahba and Jakub Bijak 5 Estimating European migration flows 52 Peter W.F. Smith, Nico Keilman, Georgios Aristotelous and Jakub Bijak PART III ADAPTING TO ALEATORY UNCERTAINTY: SCANNING THE FUTURE WITH SCENARIOS 6 Ways of dealing with uncertainty in migration scenarios 72 Emily Barker and Jakub Bijak 7 Setting scenarios: combining numbers and stories 84 Michaela Potančoková, Helga de Valk, Rafael Costa, Michaël Boissonneault and Jakub Bijak PART IV FROM MIGRATION SCENARIOS TO EVIDENCE-INFORMED POLICIES 8 Communico, ergo sum? Potential and pitfalls of knowledge exchange 100 Daniela Vono de Vilhena, Andreas Edel and Christian Kobsda 9 Forecasting asylum: the perspective of the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) 114 Teddy A. Wilkin and Constantinos Melachrinos 10 Comment: dealing with uncertainty in population projections 124 Rainer Muenz 11 Contested realities: context and the ethics of migration scenarios 131 Ann Singleton PART V CONCLUSIONS 12 Conclusion to From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios 137 Jakub Bijak References 148 Online resources 164 Glossary of key terms 166
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Produktdetaljer

ISBN
9781035319794
Publisert
2024-12-03
Utgiver
Vendor
Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd
Høyde
216 mm
Bredde
138 mm
Aldersnivå
P, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Innbundet
Antall sider
184

Redaktør

Biographical note

Edited by Jakub Bijak, Professor of Statistical Demography, Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, UK