Since the famous 1948 Dewey/Truman election, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. Editors James Campbell and James Garand have pulled together some of the leading figures in political science to present their forecasts of the 1996 presidential election, along with accompanying analyses which discuss their methodology. Despite the relative lack of suspense about the eventual outcome, the various contributors have some very different angles on the enterprise of forecasting. Before the Vote presents a series of critiques, from prominent political scientists who look at the forecasting enterprise. Issues include whether more accurate models of predicting voter behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the eventual winner will be. It will be a valuable addition to the bookshelves of political scientists interested in American electoral politics and those interested in broad questions surrounding social science research methods. This book is targeted toward MSGI courses in political science, American government, American politics, parties and elections, public opinion and participation, media and politics, political analysis, and scholars who work in these areas.
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Presents leading political scientists' forecasts of the 1996 US presidential election, and methodological analysis.
PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
Forecasting US National Elections - James E Campbell and James C Garand
PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
Polls and Votes - James E Campbell
The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns
Bill and Al′s Excellent Adventure - Alan Abramowitz
Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election
Of Time and Candidates - Helmut Norpoth
A Forecast for 1996
The Future in Forecasting - Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
Prospective Presidential Models
Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts - Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson
Reading the Political Tea Leaves - Thomas Holbrook
A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections
Election Forecasting - Brad Lockerbie
A Look to the Future
Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years - Robert S Erikson and Lee Sigelman
1952-1992 and 1996
PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING
Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election - Nathaniel Beck
The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections - James E Campbell
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Produktdetaljer
ISBN
9780761916369
Publisert
2000-02-07
Utgiver
Vendor
SAGE Publications Inc
Vekt
450 gr
Høyde
228 mm
Bredde
152 mm
Aldersnivå
P, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Innbundet
Antall sider
232