We know that a revolution's success largely depends on the army's response to it. But can we predict the military's reaction to an uprising? How Armies Respond to Revolutions and Why argues that it is possible to make a highly educated guess--and in some cases even a confident prediction--about the generals' response to a domestic revolt if we know

List of Tables ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction 1 Chapter 1 What Determines the Army's Reaction to an Uprising? 16 Chapter 2 Iran, 1979 45 Chapter 3 Burma, 1988 and 2007 74 Chapter 4 China and Eastern Europe, 1989 101 Chapter 5 The Middle East and North Africa, 2011 133 Conclusion 165 Notes 179 Bibliography 203 Index 223

"In this superb book, Barany asks how many militaries in nearly 20 countries responded to popular uprisings from 1979 to 2011."--Choice "Barany's short work is a welcome addition to the literature on revolutions for its clarity, accessibility, and range of case studies."--Alistair Shawcross, International Journal on World Peace

"Barany focuses on the critical, yet understudied, question of how militaries respond to revolution. Over the course of his book, he offers a novel theoretical argument and compelling empirical evidence with which to assess that argument. This is an important work that demands the attention of scholars of both revolutions and military institutions."—David M. Edelstein, author of Occupational Hazards: Success and Failure in Military Occupation"There is no more important factor in the success of revolutions than the response of the old regime army. And there is no more important book on armies in revolution than this beautifully written comparative study by Barany. His insights shed new light on the outcome of events from Iran's Islamic Revolution and the Tiananmen revolt in China to the Arab revolutions of 2010-11."—Jack A. Goldstone, author of Revolutions: Theoretical, Comparative, and Historical Studies"How Armies Respond To Revolutions and Why is a timely and profoundly perceptive work. Barany deftly mines his well-chosen case studies to identify the logic and decision-making processes that affect civil-military relations in repressive societies at times of acute stress, chronic instability, or outright revolt. This work makes a significant contribution to better understanding the loyalties and proclivities of national militaries and anticipating their reactions when confronted with revolutionary upheaval."—Bruce Hoffman, director of the Security Studies Program, Georgetown University"Extremely accessible and impressive in its sweep, this book offers a practical and insightful framework for analyzing military actions during revolutions. Barany has a tremendous grasp of civil-military relations and knows his subject matter well. His work will interest policymakers and analysts as well as scholars studying military politics and military responses to mass uprisings."—Risa Brooks, author of Shaping Strategy: The Civil-Military Politics of Strategic Assessment"How Armies Respond to Revolutions and Why shows great attention to detail, advances its arguments effectively, and presents a clear, conceptual framework. Enlivened by cases and interviews, this book addresses a topic that is timely and clearly pertinent to policy. It will find a solid readership in war colleges, intelligence and policy analysis circles, and courses in intelligence analysis."—David J. Betz, King's College London