This book explains why inflation remains subdued after recessions, based on three revolutionary concepts: defensive expectations, compensatory savings, and cumulative wage gap. When income falls, consumption falls, and savings rise, as people rebuild their past wealth. Households will not spend more until they fully recover what they lost. The revised Phillips Curve explains that current inflation depends on the cumulative difference between current income and past income.This new theory is tested and validated by data for US since 1960 to date and for 35 OECD countries from 1990 to date. A number of policy implications are derived from these results. The book calls for an optimal policy mix between monetary policy and fiscal policy; it also discusses the coronavirus crisis as an extreme case of defensive expectations.
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This book explains why inflation remains subdued after recessions, based on three revolutionary concepts: defensive expectations, compensatory savings, and cumulative wage gap.
1. The Phillips Curve: what went wrong.- 2. An alternative theory of consumption.- 3. The post-crisis Phillips Curve: cumulative wage gap vs. inflation gap.- 4. Empirical evidence.- 5. Policy implications.
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This book takes us through the journey of the Phillips Curve to the present debate, dominated by the post-great recession puzzles and the challenges to the fundamental stable relationship between inflation and economic slack. Liviu makes an insightful contribution to the discussion and to our understanding of inflation dynamics by introducing the concept of cumulative wage gap as a measure of slack.Luis de Guindos, Vice President European Central Bank
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Presents long-run data for 35 OECD countries to formulate analysis Works with observable variables only Makes a fundamental change of paradigm from flow to stock Allows for the Phillips Curve to be time-dependent
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Produktdetaljer
ISBN
9783030550448
Publisert
2020-12-10
Utgiver
Vendor
Springer Nature Switzerland AG
Høyde
210 mm
Bredde
148 mm
Aldersnivå
Research, P, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Innbundet
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