Black Swan Problem Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty
Produktdetaljer
Biografisk notat
Håkan Jankensgård is a risk philosopher and modeler. He has been passionate about the philosophy, theory and practice of risk management for over 25 years. He has done extensive academic research into various aspects of this field such as the theory of enterprise risk management, firms' hedging strategies, risk governance, and risk capital. This research has been published in well-respected, peer-reviewed academic journals like Financial Management, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Accounting Business & Finance, and European Financial Management. He is actively developing the concept of Risk budgeting, which is about incorporating knowledge about risk and risk appetite into the forecasting models that management uses for financial and strategic decision-making. Jankensgård is a professor of corporate finance and holds a PhD from Lund University.
An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience
In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of “black swan” risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility:
The author also presents:
- Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruption
- Extending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive action
- Practical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they cause
- Strategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage
An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.
Prologue 3
Chapter 1: The Swans Revisited 7
The nature of randomness 8
The Moving Tail 11
The role of expectations 16
What makes us suckers? 20
The relativity of Black Swans 24
Meet the preppers 28
Chapter 2: Corporate Swans 31
The Board’s perspective 31
Swans attack 33
Strategy Swans 35
The Swan within 39
The growth fetish 42
The fear factor 47
The Chief Executive Swan 49
Swans on the rise 52
Chapter 3: The Black Swan Problem 60
Tail risk and firm value 60
Understanding wipeouts 65
Strategy disruption 71
All you zombies 76
The affordability issue 78
The conundrum 84
Chapter 4: Greeting the Swan 90
Randomness redux 90
The roads not taken 98
Functional stupidity 102
The Swanmakers 108
On tools and models 112
A Swan radar for the Board 116
Chapter 5: Taming the Swan 122
Drawing the line 122
Distance to wipeout 129
Risk capital 131
Stress testing 140
The exit option 146
Resilience vs endurance 150
Quantitative models 155
Liquidity is king 162
Chapter 6: Catching the Swan 166
Antifragility 167
Restoring the true path 170
Buying on the cheap 173
Opportunity capital 176
Flight to safety 182
Risk as strategy 187
Chapter 7: Riding the Swan 192
Risk shifting 192
A beautiful strategy 199
Fuel for growth 203
Narcissism redeemed 208
A tail of two companies 211
End of the ride 215
Swans to the rescue? 217
Epilogue 221
“Most people who read Nassim Taleb’s work come away with a sense of the hopelessness of planning and analysis. Dr Jankensgård, however, turns the process on its head and develop constructive responses to Black Swans. This book presents a rare and valuable look at the Black Swan-issue through the lens of corporate strategic and financial decisions.”
—Prof Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance, New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business
A complete and practical framework for firms seeking protection from unlikely—but potentially devastating—events
Taking a perspective that goes beyond mere risk minimization, The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty explores essential strategies for optimizing your firm’s exposure to unlikely and catastrophic situations. You’ll learn how to navigate a world of increasing uncertainty and unpredictability as you walk through three foundational approaches to black swan incidents: insurance, buffering, and flexibility.
World-renowned risk, valuation, and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård combines detailed case studies, stories, anecdotes, and examples with a big-picture and organizational perspective that prioritizes proactive positioning over reactive damage control. The book explains why black swan events are “make-or-break” moments for firms with plenty of upside potential – if you know where to look.
A timely and essential guide to anticipating and exploiting once-in-a-lifetime events, The Black Swan Problem shows executives, managers, business leaders, risk managers, company founders, and compliance officers how to cope with uncertainty, manage risk, prepare for the unexpected, and find enduring competitive advantage in low-probability, high-impact risks.
Used widely to describe extremely unlikely but devastating events, the term “black swan” has taken on an increasingly prominent (and anxiety-inducing) role in the perspectives of risk professionals and executives around the world. After all, it seems that once-in-a-lifetime incidents like pandemics, environmental disasters, and financial crises are occurring more frequently than ever before.
In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, veteran risk and valuation expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an intensely insightful exploration of how organizations can and should navigate an increasingly uncertain and unpredictable commercial environment.
In the book, you’ll find three foundational and high-level strategies for improving your firm’s resilience in the face of “black swan” risks: insurance, buffering, and flexibility. The approaches are presented alongside detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate black swan events and, as a result, were either wiped out entirely or experienced major operational disruptions.
The Black Swan Problem tackles an issue that’s often discussed from an academic viewpoint with a uniquely organizational perspective, priming organizations to be proactive rather than reactive. It offers protective methods and tactics anyone can use to mitigate black swan risks and prevent existential crises, turning crushing loss into invaluable opportunity. It presents fascinating outlooks on risk-taking in firms, showcasing approaches that do more than just minimize risk.
An irreplaceable roadmap for companies doing their best to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a can’t-miss resource for students and practitioners of risk management, executive-level leaders at organizations of all sizes, company founders, managers, and other business leaders.
Produktdetaljer
Biografisk notat
Håkan Jankensgård is a risk philosopher and modeler. He has been passionate about the philosophy, theory and practice of risk management for over 25 years. He has done extensive academic research into various aspects of this field such as the theory of enterprise risk management, firms' hedging strategies, risk governance, and risk capital. This research has been published in well-respected, peer-reviewed academic journals like Financial Management, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Accounting Business & Finance, and European Financial Management. He is actively developing the concept of Risk budgeting, which is about incorporating knowledge about risk and risk appetite into the forecasting models that management uses for financial and strategic decision-making. Jankensgård is a professor of corporate finance and holds a PhD from Lund University.